Traffic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Statewide Analysis of Social Separation and Activity Restriction

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in significant social and economic impacts throughout the world. In addition to the health consequences, the impacts on travel behavior have also been sudden and wide ranging. This study describes the drastic changes in human behavior using the analysis of highway volume data as a representation of personal activity and interaction. Same-day traffic volumes for 2019 and 2020 across Florida were analyzed to identify spatial and temporal changes in behavior resulting from the disease or fear of it and statewide directives to limit person-to-person interaction. Compared to similar days in 2019, overall statewide traffic volume dropped by 47.5%. Although decreases were evident across the state, there were also differences between rural and urban areas and between highways and arterials both in terms of the timing and extent. The data and analyses help to demonstrate the early impacts of the pandemic and may be useful for operational and strategic planning of recovery efforts and for dealing with future pandemics.

Predicting Grocery Store Visits During the Early Outbreak of COVID-19 with Machine Learning

While non-essential travel was canceled during the coronavirus infectious disease (COVID-19) pandemic, grocery shopping was essential. The objectives of this study were to: 1) examine how grocery store visits changed during the early outbreak of COVID-19, and 2) estimate a model to predict the change of grocery store visits in the future, within the same phase of the pandemic. The study period (February 15–May 31, 2020) covered the outbreak and phase-one re-opening. Six counties/states in the United States were examined. Grocery store visits (in-store or curbside pickup) increased over 20% when the national emergency was declared on March 13 and then decreased below the baseline within a week. Grocery store visits on weekends were affected more significantly than those on workdays before late April. Grocery store visits in some states (including California, Louisiana, New York, and Texas) started returning to normal by the end of May, but that was not the case for some of the counties (including those with the cities of Los Angeles and New Orleans). With data from Google Mobility Reports, this study used a long short-term memory network to predict the change of grocery store visits from the baseline in the future. The networks trained with the national data or the county data performed well in predicting the general trend of each county. The results from this study could help understand mobility patterns of grocery store visits during the pandemic and predict the process of returning to normal.

Predicting Grocery Store Visits During the Early Outbreak of COVID-19 with Machine Learning.

While non-essential travel was canceled during the coronavirus infectious disease (COVID-19) pandemic, grocery shopping was essential. The objectives of this study were to: 1) examine how grocery store visits changed during the early outbreak of COVID-19, and 2) estimate a model to predict the change of grocery store visits in the future, within the same phase of the pandemic. The study period (February 15-May 31, 2020) covered the outbreak and phase-one re-opening. Six counties/states in the United States were examined. Grocery store visits (in-store or curbside pickup) increased over 20% when the national emergency was declared on March 13 and then decreased below the baseline within a week. Grocery store visits on weekends were affected more significantly than those on workdays before late April. Grocery store visits in some states (including California, Louisiana, New York, and Texas) started returning to normal by the end of May, but that was not the case for some of the counties (including those with the cities of Los Angeles and New Orleans). With data from Google Mobility Reports, this study used a long short-term memory network to predict the change of grocery store visits from the baseline in the future. The networks trained with the national data or the county data performed well in predicting the general trend of each county. The results from this study could help understand mobility patterns of grocery store visits during the pandemic and predict the process of returning to normal.

COVID-19, traffic demand, and activity restriction in China: A national assessment.

The global COVID pandemic of 2020, affected travel patterns across the world. The level of impact was influenced not only by the virus itself, but also by the nature, extent, and duration of governmental restriction on commerce and personal activity to limit its spread. This paper focuses on the interaction between COVID-19 transmission and traffic volume and further explores the impact of traffic control policies on the interaction. Roadway traffic volume was used to quantify and assess the Chinese response to the pandemic; specifically, the relationship between government restrictions, travel activity, and COVID-19 progression across 29 provinces. Space and time distributions of traffic volume across China during the first half of 2020, were used to quantity the response and recovery of travel during the critical initial onset period of the virus. Most revealing of these trends were the impact of the Chinese restriction policies on both travel and the virus as well as the relationship of traffic trends during the closure period with the speed and extent of the recovery "bounce" across individual provinces based on location, economic activity, and restriction policy. These suggest that the most significant and rapid declines in traffic volume during the restriction period resulted in the most pronounced returns to normal (or more) demand levels. Based on these trends a Susceptible Infection Recovery model was created to simulate a range of outbreak and restriction policies to examine the relationship between COVID-19 spread and traffic volume in China.

Estimating long-term and short-term impact of COVID-19 activity restriction on regional highway traffic demand: A case study in Zhejiang Province, China.

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in China in late 2019, government administrators have implemented traffic restriction policies to prevent the spread of COVID-19. However, highway traffic volumes obtained from ETC data in some provinces did not return to the levels of previous years after the end of the traffic restriction policy, suggesting that traffic restriction policy may have long-term effects. This paper proposed a method that analyzes traffic restriction policies' long-term and short-term impact on highway traffic volume under COVID-19. This method first analyzes the long-term and short-term impacts of traffic restriction policies on the highway traffic volume using the Prophet model combined with the concept of traffic volume loss. It further investigates the relationship between COVID-19 cases and the long-term and short-term impacts of the traffic restriction policy using Granger causality and the impulse response function of the Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model. The results showed that during the COVID-19 pandemic, highway traffic in Zhejiang Province decreased by about 95.5%, and the short-term impact of COVID-19 cases was most pronounced on the second day. However, the long-term effects were relatively small when the traffic restriction policy ended and was verified by data from other provinces. These results will provide decision support for traffic management and provide recommendations for future traffic impact assessments in the event of similar epidemics.

Estimating long-term and short-term influence of COVID-19 activity restriction on regional highway traffic demand: A case study in Zhejiang Province, China

Since the outbreak of COVID-19 in China in late 2019, government administrators have implemented traffic restriction policies to prevent the spread of COVID-19. However, highway traffic volumes obtained from ETC data in some provinces did not return to the levels of previous years after the end of the traffic restriction policy, suggesting that traffic restriction policy may have long-term effects. This paper proposed a method that analyzes traffic restriction policies' long-term and short-term impact on highway traffic volume under COVID-19. This method first analyzes the long-term and short-term impacts of traffic restriction policies on the highway traffic volume using the Prophet model combined with the concept of traffic volume loss. It further investigates the relationship between COVID-19 cases and the long-term and short-term impacts of the traffic restriction policy using Granger causality and the impulse response function of the Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model. The results showed that during the COVID-19 pandemic, highway traffic in Zhejiang Province decreased by about 95.5%, and the short-term impact of COVID-19 cases was most pronounced on the second day. However, the long-term effects were relatively small when the traffic restriction policy ended and was verified by data from other provinces. These results will provide decision support for traffic management and provide recommendations for future traffic impact assessments in the event of similar epidemics.

Multistate Assessment of Roadway Travel, Social Separation, and COVID-19 Cases

This research was undertaken to comparatively assess the unprecedented travel and activity conditions related to the onset of coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) in the US in the first half of 2020. In this effort, roadway traffic volumes were used to relate government directives for social separation and COVID-19 case progression in ten diversely populated and located states. Among the key contributions of the research were its illustration of the amount and time scale of public response to activity restrictions across the country and the general finding that overall, governmental directives, as reflected in rapid traffic decreases, likely served their purpose. Another key finding was that by June 1st, no state had completely returned to routine levels of travel. Combined, the results of this study illustrate the effect of governmental action with respect to the course of the virus, including how varied timings of responses reflected outcomes based on the levels of threat and characteristics of individual locations. It is expected that this paper will be of use to practitioners, governmental, and researchers to assess and develop plans for future similar major events and emergencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Transportation. Part A: Systems is the property of American Society of Civil Engineers and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Traffic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Statewide Analysis of Social Separation and Activity Restriction

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in significant social and economic impacts throughout the world. In addition to the health consequences, the impacts on travel behavior have also been sudden and wide ranging. This study describes the drastic changes in human behavior using the analysis of highway volume data as a representation of personal activity and interaction. Same-day traffic volumes for 2019 and 2020 across Florida were analyzed to identify spatial and temporal changes in behavior resulting from the disease or fear of it and statewide directives to limit person-to-person interaction. Compared to similar days in 2019, overall statewide traffic volume dropped by 47.5%. Although decreases were evident across the state, there were also differences between rural and urban areas and between highways and arterials both in terms of the timing and extent. The data and analyses help to demonstrate the early impacts of the pandemic and may be useful for operational and strategic planning of recovery efforts and for dealing with future pandemics.